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| Virus of DOOM? |
Since the virus's discovery in Wuhan, China (December 2019), the disease has travelled widely throughout the world. It appears to be highly contagious and produces pneumonia-like symptoms. The death rate has been 'determined' at about 1.4% to 2% and fatalities are mostly among the old and the already sick- as to be expected. This may represent an overestimate as about 80% of infected patients have relatively mild symptoms and may be unaware of their coronavirus infection thus assuming that they are suffering from a traditional cold or flu infection.
Globalisation and ubiquitous international travel are clearly responsible for the virus's rapid dissemination from mainland China. In addition, we have become acutely aware and primed for a pandemic by the 'scientific media'. The consensus is that a significant viral pandemic is inevitable given enough time. Several pandemic scares have occurred over the past 20 years (SARS, etc) and although these viral diseases have been considered as potentially catastrophic, this has not turned out to be the case.
While I think government agencies have a duty to their citizens to report truthfully concerning the impact of the virus on health and society in general, it also has a responsibility not to foster a climate of 'gloom and doom'. There is a tendency to assume a posture of the 'worst-case scenario' and the media, for reasons of its own, are not always motivated to promulgate an even-handed or fact-based reportage.
I do not advocate complacency or foster a nonchalant attitude to a serious medical challenge but we are not dealing with the black death. The impact of the virus should always be considered within a medical context where death and disease are commonplace. Taking the US as an example: influenza has killed about 18,000 people this flu season; 30 million have been infected and 310,000 hospitalised. There are already reports of people overacting. In Auckland, New Zealand, a single case caused mass buying hysteria in local supermarkets. I do hear tell that the popular bottled beer, 'Corona' has experienced a recent downturn in sales of 30%! C'mon folks, let us be sensible, measured and rational.
Anyway, I would be interested to hear what my readers think of the situation. In the meantime, I will get to work on a science-based article.
One case in NZ today, but you might expect many more in the next few weeks, like most of Europe & Africa.
ReplyDeleteThis (possibly modified) virus has an approximate 10 times the lethality of "normal" flu, plus it's much more infectious. Its use of the ACE2 receptors makes it more like HIV than flu.
But the quite worrying aspect is re-infection: after the alleged cure the immune system is depleted, then the 2nd round causes a cytokine storm, which damages organs and is much more lethal.
(FS: please correct my imperfect & ignorant statements.)
Hi Ed, thanks for your comment. The point of my short post was just to emphasise that an over reaction may be more damaging than the virus itself, with regard to social and economic costs. I agree we shouldn't be complacent and we should do everything in our power to reduce the virus's spread and seek an 'antidote' ASAP. I'll address your other pertinent points in a further post. Should take about 5-6 days as I'm halfway through another post.
ReplyDeleteIt is nice to hear a voice of reason amidst a sea of panic. Check out
Deletethe interiew of Dr. Jeremy Faust (Harvard med, long time ER doctor
and one of leaders on the CDC Taskforce.) Something to worry about?
Yes, but a panic causing shit-paper shortages is a bridge too far.
I blame the hysterics in the media who are predicting a 1918 type
worldwide pandemic for scaring the crap out of citizens. I can do
without a face mask, or even hand wipes but leave my toilet paper
alone!
I will check out the interview. Anyway, forget the toilet paper and food- I'll be stock piling my favourite beer.
DeleteHiya Saxon,
ReplyDeleteThe media always love to "scare things up". The more sensational or alarming, more viewers/readers. Although most people I know tend to tune out the more alarmist stuff. Problem is there will be some that panic which tends to start a stampede ( abit like New Years sales at Rackhams in Birmingham in the 60's,
normal women turned into handbag wielding zombies at the chance of a new purse for a quid.)
AS my dear old Mother says "they panic over nothing these days". Panic does no one any good. I'm avoiding crowds, which I do in any case because Im a grumpy old bugger, and dosing myself with alcohol regularly as a precaution.
Must admit, I'm glad I escaped Brum and washed up on the banks of the mighty Waikato all those years ago.
If this comment doesn't make sense, don't be surprised :)
Of course the media have a self interest in inflating and dramatising the problem. My local supermarket is rationing toilet paper! I don't understand the hoarding bog paper- perhaps it is a very visible symptom of hoarding in general. As a kid, I used newspaper. The Romans used a piece of sponge on a stick. If things really get bad, and I don't think they will, I'll hunker down on my farmstead. The chickens provide a ready supply of food on the hoof. Polly, Molly, Holly and Dolly will be the main victims of this irrational madness.
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